In one corner, we have the juggernaut Los Angeles Lakers. They are right where we thought they would be. In the other corner, we’ve got the Denver Nuggets. The team who refuses to die. Are these 3rd seeded Nuggets punching above their weight class by facing off against the number 1 seed Lakers? Let’s take a closer look at the 2020 West Finals.
The Matchup
Los Angeles Lakers
- 52-19, 1st in West
- Round 1: 4-1 over Portland
- Round 2: 4-1 over Houston
- All-Stars: Lebron James and Anthony Davis
Denver Nuggets
- 46-27, 3rd in West
- Round 1: 4-3 over Utah
- Round 2: 4-3 over Los Angeles Clippers
- All-Stars: Nikola Jokic
Season Series
- Game 1: December 3, 2019: Lakers won 105-96
- Game 2: December 22, 2019: Nuggets won 128-104
- Final matchup before the break: February 12, 2020: Lakers won 120-116(OT)
- Game 4: August 10, 2020 (@Orlando bubble): Lakers won 124-121
- Overall: Lakers won 3-1
Regular Season Takeaways
- Rebounding: The only games the Nuggets won were when they managed to tie the Lakers in rebounding or beat them outright.
- Lebron was out for game 2 which was Denver’s only win.
- If we take out game 2, each game was close.
- LA’s game 1 win was closer than the 9 points suggests.
- Game 3 went to overtime where Anthony Davis took over.
- Game 4 (in the bubble) featured Denver playing everyone 20 min yet LA played Lebron and AD 38 minutes each.
- The game in the bubble is the most intriguing in that the Lakers were down 5 with less than 2 minutes left.
- They needed Kyle Kuzma’s gamewinner over Bol Bol to seal the deal.
Keys for the Lakers
The Lakers have a couple things going for them aside from having Anthony Davis and Lebron James on their roster. For one, their two biggest threats all season: the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers are gone. Both contenders flamed out in spectacular fashion. In that way, it would seem that the Lakers are the best team left in the field and also the favorite to win it all. For another, the Lakers get to play a team that has gone down 3-1 in two straight playoff series. That’s not to discount the Nuggets at all but Laker fans have to be happy that they don’t have to see Kawhi Leonard in the next round.
Lastly, the Lakers are playing great. They’re 8-2 in the playoffs and the only real negative you can say is that they keep losing game 1’s. We thought the Blazers would give them problems but the Lakers beat them down. Houston was expected to give the Lakers a series but LA won 4 straight games to take them out in 5. Simply out, LeBrow and the gang look hungry and motivated after their troubling 3-5 seeding games record. Here are the keys for the Lakers in this 2020 West Finals.
The “Other Guys”
The group that qualifies here are players who average more than 20 minutes a game and are not named Anthony Davis or Lebron James. These players consist of Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (27 min), Danny Green (26 min), Rajon Rondo (26 min), Kyle Kuzma (24 min) and Alex Caruso (23 min). In the playoffs, these 5 guys account for 46.2 points whereas Lebrow (Lebron and AD) average 54.2 per game.
The Lakers need more production out of their secondary group. Playoff Rondo has been a real thing as he’s averaging double figures with 10.6 ppg and 7 assists. Kyle Kuzma has had some big games as well and is scoring well at 11 points a game. For me, I need more out of Danny Green and KCP especially with the minutes they are getting (but we’ll get to them in a minute). If these 5 guys can all up their production slightly, the Lakers become extremely hard to beat.
The Bigs vs The Joker
The way to slow down Jokić is to be physical and make him work. Jokić entered the bubble in better shape but he’s also fresh off back to back 7 game series’. I believe the Lakers can slow him down by throwing big bodies in his way and tiring him out. In the regular season, Dwight Howard and Javale McGee averaged about 35 minutes a night. However, during the playoffs their minutes have diminished based on the opponents the Lakers went against.
The Blazers had Nurkić but otherwise used Carmelo Anthony as a power forward. The Houston Rockets are famous for playing a 6’5 center so the McGee/Howard pairing was reduced to cat calling from the sidelines. Against Denver however, they’ll earn their paychecks. Jokić is a wizard with the basketball and I don’t expect Howard or McGee to be able to stop his playmaking. They can however make it more difficult on him with their strength and length.
Points in the Paint
All year, the Lakers have feasted on points in the paint. Denver is a team that (at times) plays “olé” defense, allowing opponents to score at will in the painted area. This seems like a recipe for disaster. However, Denver proved that they can turn you into a jump-shooting team as they did with the Clippers. So the question then becomes, will the Lakers take the bait? If Lebron and Anthony Davis settle for jumpers and shots outside the key, they’ll be doing Denver a favor. They need to attack early and often. For the Lakers, scoring in the paint not only gets them easy buckets. It also gets their stars more free throw attempts and opens up the rest of the floor for their shooters…
Series X-Factor(s): The Shooters
To be honest it’s hard to pick one X-factor for this Laker team. They have a different player contributing every night. As a whole though, their 3 point shooters could be the X-factors. Let’s say Denver does find a way to close down the paint. LA drivers will be forced to kick it out to shooters. KCP and Green have to knock those down. Both guards average over 25 minutes and 2 threes a game. Their production may get a boost in this series. KCP is shooting 41% from 3 in the playoffs and Green is at 38%. That’s good but the key will be to maintain those percentages with more attempts. The collective shooting of the two guards could be a major X-factor in this 2020 West Finals.
Keys for the Nuggets
I never thought I’d be writing this paragraph. In two straight series’ I’ve written the Nuggets off. I thought they were done against the Utah Jazz and I was sure they would be eliminated by the Los Angeles Clippers. Yet here they are, the Denver Nuggets in the 2020 West Finals. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised. Denver was one of the best teams in the NBA for the majority of the season. They have an All-NBA center in Nikola Jokic and a rising star in Jamal Murray. Throw in a top 5 NBA offense and a defense that seems to pick it up when it matters most and you have a volatile mix. They are an underdog only because they are playing the LA Lakers.
After going down 3-1 to the Utah Jazz, Jamal Murray went on a scoring tear to tie the series up. In fact, he was the first player since Michael Jordan (!!!) to score 40 points in 3 straight games. The Nuggets then fell back down to earth by losing 3 of the next 4 games against the Clippers before ultimately rallying for yet another comeback. I really don’t know what to make of this team except for this: they never give up and no lead is safe. There is not a lead big enough where you can let your foot off the gas if you’re playing Denver. Now, let’s see take a look at their keys to success in this 2020 West Finals.
Second Half Productivity
Against the Clippers, the Nuggets dominated the second halves. During their comeback, they outscored the Clippers by an average margin of 21.3 points. Games 5 and 6 saw the Nuggets hang 67 and 64 points on a pretty good defensive team. I believe that’s directly correlated to coaching. Mike Malone is one of the most underrated coaches in the league. He’s been an assistant coach since ’01 and he’s worked with some great teams. He was an assistant for the Cavaliers ’07 title run and was on Mark Jackson’s Warriors staff before he finally got hired to run his own operation. It’s hard to quantify coaching in a player-driven league but it really seems like the Nuggets play hard for him and I think that’s important. He’s obviously making the right adjustments to allow Denver to come out with an edge in second halves.
Protecting the Paint
Surprising stat of the day: When Gary Harris is on the floor, the Nuggets’ defensive rating is 106.3 as opposed to 117.0 when he’s off via NBA.com. However, the biggest problem for the Nuggets is points in the paint. The Clippers bailed the Nuggets out by taking jumpers all series long but you can bet the Lakers won’t be that easy. The Nuggets will have to control the paint and that starts with players like Harris, Torrey Craig, and Jerami Grant out on the perimeter. The Lakers thrive on spreading teams out and attacking driving lanes. Jokic has never been known as a defensive center so that means the wings and guards will have to prevent those lanes from opening up to protect Jokic. That might mean sacrificing some open 3’s. However, by putting the game into the Lakers’ shooters hands; I believe the Nuggets will have a better chance.
If they fail to do so, it could be a parade to the free throw line. Anthony Davis is a mismatch for every big Denver has on it’s roster in the post and Lebron James even more so on the perimeter. Putting Grant or Craig on Lebron will likely be the move but neither player is well-equipped for the assignment. Paul Millsap is a couple years past his prime but he may have the physical strength to bully Lebron or AD away from the basket but I wouldn’t count on it. How the Nuggets defend the paint could swing this series one way or the other.
Jamal Murray vs the Laker guards
For a quick refresher, let’s take a look at Jamal Murray’s improvement from the regular season to the playoffs:
| ppg | apg | rpg | fg% | 3p% | ft% | |
| Regular Season | 18.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 45.6% | 34.6% | 88.1% |
| Playoffs | 27.1 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 50% | 49% | 91% |
That statistical jump is bonkers and it’s a good indicator of the incredible hot streak Murray has been on in these playoffs. In order for the Nuggets to win, he’s going to need to do this and more. He can’t be inconsistent like he was against the Clippers. The Lakers guards would seem ill-equipped to handle a guard like Murray. But we have to remember they have already shut down the likes of Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook and James Harden in the playoffs. In order for Murray to prove that his leap to stardom is real and not simply a bubble aberration, he’ll have to find a way to succeed in this series. If there’s one thing Murray has proven in these playoffs it’s that he won’t shrink away from the challenge.
Series X-Factor: Michael Porter Jr
Porter ruffled a few feather last series when he criticized coaching for not spreading the ball around. While I certainly think it could have been said with more tact, I don’t think he was wrong. Porter is a natural born scorer. He’s a 6’10 mismatch with a silky smooth jumper and the ability to go off at any moment. With Gary Harris back in the lineup, Porter moved back to the Nuggets bench where I believe he’s much more effective. He likely won’t have to deal with a high caliber defender and all he’ll need to worry about is providing scoring. If Porter can have a couple big games and give some quality minutes, he absolutely raises the Nuggets ceiling in this series. Nobody should be asking Porter to guard Lebron or AD but if Malone can put him in a position to score, he could be the difference.
Series Prediction
Denver has been fighting for their lives all postseason. They’ve got into a hole in each series but that has resulted in them playing their best basketball. They should be going into this series already feeling like their backs are against the wall in that they are a huge underdog. However, that’s where they thrive. They have the ability to beat the Lakers but will they be consistent enough to do so?
This is the Lakers’ moment. They’ve drawn one of the easier routes to the Finals that they could have hoped for. They will ultimately avoid Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo if they are to make it all the way to the Finals and they look motivated to do just that. The Nuggets represent a unique challenge but this 2020 West Finals is the Lakers to lose.
Lakers in 6
Ultimately, I think the combination of Lebron and Anthony Davis is too much for the Nuggets to overcome. I think Jokić will tire from banging bodies with Howard and McGee. The Nuggets will fail to come up with an answer for LeBrow and I think the Lakers guards will do enough to slow Murray down. The Nuggets will be tougher than anyone else the Lakers have faced yet but it still won’t be enough. I pick the Lakers in 6 to win the 2020 West Finals and earn their chance to fight for the NBA Championship.
